Distribution Center Forecast
Weekly shipping volume at a distribution center follows annual seasonality and occasional holiday peaks that can triple normal volume.
I compared three modeltime approaches to see which handled that pattern best on a 24-week holdout, using external regressors for peak flags and environmental factors. Prophet captured seasonal structure most reliably (lowest RMSE), but peak weeks remained difficult — none of the models beat a naive baseline when spikes were rare in training. I refit the best model and deployed it as a Docker API.
- R
- tidyverse
- tidymodels
- modeltime
- timetk
- vetiver
- Docker
- AWS S3